Macroeconomic Performance
Table 1: Overview of some macroeconomic indicators
Despite a 0.4 percentage point fall in growth, Togo’s economy remained robust, growing by 5.4 per cent in 2023, down from 5.8 per cent in 2022, partly affected by the impact of the sanctions on Niger, which restricted transit trade between the two countries. Average inflation eased to 5.1 per cent in 2023 from 7.6 per cent in 2022, as food and energy prices declined. Fiscal balance improved to -6.6 per cent of GDP in 2023 as revenue growth outperformed the growth in expenditure, while public debt inched up to 67.2 per cent of GDP from 66.5 per cent in 2022. The current account balance improved to -3.4 per cent of GDP in 2023, down from -4.2 per cent in 2022.
Outlook
Togo’s economy is projected to stabilise at a growth of 5.4 per cent in 2024, strengthening to 5.5 per cent in 2025. The growth in economic activity will be supported by increased private consumption, with the projected decline in inflation. Average inflation will decline to 2.3 per cent in 2024 and further to 2.0 per cent in 2025 on the back of food and energy price declines. Fiscal balance is projected to decline to -6.0 per cent of GDP in 2024 and further to -3.0 per cent in 2025 due to a combination of increased revenue measures and lower petroleum subsidies as a result of the expected lower crude oil prices. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase to 68.3 per cent of GDP in 2024, declining to 66.5 per cent in 2025. The current account balance is projected to widen to -4.4 per cent of GDP in 2024, as low inflation spurs imports, declining to -4.0 per cent in 2025.
Probable Headwinds
Togo remains exposed to possible attacks from the Sahelian region, even though that risk is quite muted. Climate change, high food and energy prices and fiscal slippages are risks that could derail the projections.