Macroeconomic Performance

Table 1: Overview of some macroeconomic indicators

Guinea recorded an average growth rate of 5.1 per cent over the last five years. Guinea recorded a growth of 4.3 per cent in 2022 same as in 2021. The economic performance in 2022 was driven by mining production, notably increased bauxite and gold production. Although inflation remains high in the country, the inflation rate fell to 8.3 per cent in 2022 from 10.5 per cent in 2021. This decline in the inflation rate was made possible by the 15 per cent appreciation of the Guinean franc against the dollar between February 2021 and August 2022 and government subsidies in the downstream petroleum sector. Fiscal policy reforms undertaken by the transitional government reduced the fiscal deficit to 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2022 from 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2021. Guinea is one of the few ECOWAS member states to achieve a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2022. The debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 33.4 per cent in 2022 from 40.6 per cent in 2021. The current account deficit deteriorated further to 6.2 per cent in 2022 from 2.1 per cent in 2021.


Guinea’s economy is expected to continue its recovery from the COVID-19 shock and the disruption created by the September 2021 coup. Growth is expected to reach 4.7 per cent in 2023 and 5.4 per cent in 2024. This is expected to be driven by strong growth in the mining sector due to increased production, investment in new mines, and a strong Chinese demand for bauxite. Inflation is expected to fall slightly to 7.2 per cent in 2023 before rising to 8.1 per cent in 2024. The fiscal deficit is expected to deteriorate slightly to 2.3 per cent of GDP in 2023 and 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2024. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to continue to decline, reaching 30 per cent of GDP in 2023 and 30.1 per cent of GDP in 2024. The current account deficit is projected to decline slightly from 5.7 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 5.1 per cent of GDP in 2024.

Probable Headwinds

The persistence of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the possible occurrence of new shocks, could sustain inflationary pressure. This inflationary pressure, combined with the risk of a tightening of global financial conditions, could reduce demand for bauxite, which would reduce exports and the revenues that should flow from them. A return to constitutional order remains a key factor on which the economic performance of the coming years depends.

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