Macroeconomic Performance
Table 1: Overview of some macroeconomic indicators
The Guinean economy recorded a 5.7 per cent growth in 2023, up from 4.0 per cent in 2022, spurred by increased mining investments and production, particularly in the bauxite sector. Average inflation decelerated to 7.8 per cent in 2023 from 10.5 per cent in 2022. Fiscal balance worsened in 2023, doubling to -1.6 per cent of GDP from -0.8 per cent of GDP in 2022, as expenditure growth outstripped the growth in revenue, while public debt increased slightly to 40.3 per cent of GDP from 40.2 per cent in 2022. The current account balance worsened marginally to -8.7 per cent of GDP from -8.6 per cent of GDP in 2022.
Outlook
Economic growth in 2024 is pegged at 5.3 per cent, rising to 5.4 per cent in 2025, spurred by strong mining sector output. Average inflation is projected to end 2024 at 8.3 per cent, declining to 7.2 per cent in 2025. Fiscal deficit is projected to almost double to -3.0 per cent in 2024 before declining to -2.6 per cent in 2025. This will be on the back of increased infrastructure investment over the period. Public debt is projected to decline to 35.1 per cent of GDP in 2024 and further to 32.6 per cent in 2025. The current account balance is projected to worsen to -12.9 per cent of GDP, declining to -11.9 per cent in 2025.
Probable Headwinds
The unfortunate fuel depot explosion in December 2023 and the subsequent rationing of fuel could have adverse impacts on the growth in economic activity if not fixed quickly and effectively. Electricity supply shortages could upend the growth in economic activity. Political risks remain in the country, particularly given that civilian rule has not been restored. An extension of the stay of the military rulers in power could spark protests and subsequent political instability.