Macroeconomic Performance
Table 1: Overview of some macroeconomic indicators
Côte d’Ivoire’s economy remained robust, even though it moderated to a growth of 6.2 per cent in 2023, compared to 6.9 per cent in 2022, supported mainly by increased public spending in line with the country’s hosting of the African Cup of Nations football tournament. The decline in output from the cocoa sector, due mainly to poor weather conditions, detracted from the growth of the agriculture sector. Average inflation eased from a high of 5.2 per cent in 2022 to 4.4 per cent in 2023 on the back of a combination of declining food prices and increasing energy and transportation prices. Fiscal balance improved to -5.2 per cent of GDP in 2023, from -6.6 per cent in 2022, with revenue growth surpassing expenditure growth, while public debt continued on an upward trend, rising to 57.1 per cent of GDP in 2023 from 55.3 per cent of GDP in 2022. The current account balance also improved to -6.0 per cent of GDP over the period from -7.7 per cent of GDP in 2022.
Outlook
The Ivorian economy is projected to maintain a high momentum growth of 6.1 per cent in 2024, rising further to 6.4 per cent in 2025, supported mainly by public sector infrastructure investments and increased crude oil exports from new fields. Average inflation is projected to decline further in 2024 (3.8%) and 2025 (3.1%) as food prices continue on a downward trend. Fiscal balance will improve to -4.0 per cent of GDP in 2024 and further to -3.0 per cent of GDP in 2025, in line with the fiscal consolidation efforts of the government post the hosting of the African Cup of Nations. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise slightly to 57.7 per cent in 2024, declining to 56.9 per cent in 2025. Current account balance is projected to improve to -4.5 per cent of GDP in 2024 and further to -3.0 per cent of GDP in 2025, on the back of improved exports (particularly crude oil), market-reflective forward contracts for cocoa in 2024 for 2025 and reduced imports.
Probable Headwinds
Cocoa output will be further threatened by poor rainfall patterns, which could derail improvements in the current account and fiscal balances as well as overall GDP growth. Insecurity also remains a key risk, particularly resulting from insurgent attacks from the country’s northern neighbours in the Sahel Region. The materialisation of the security risk will invoke increased security spending, throwing the fiscal consolidation efforts out of gear and also lead to low agriculture output in the north.