Macroeconomic Performance
Table 1: Overview of some macroeconomic indicators
The Senegalese economy grew by 4.1 per cent in 2023, up from 4.0 per cent in 2022. The slow growth, compared to projections, was as a result of the political tensions and social unrests which marred the growth in economic activity. Average inflation declined to 5.9 per cent in 2023 from a peak of 9.7 per cent in 2022 as food and energy prices declined. Fiscal balance eased to -4.9 per cent of GDP in 2023, from -6.6 per cent in 2022, as revenue growth outstripped the growth in expenditure. Public debt increased to 79.6 per cent of GDP from 76.0 per cent in 2022, with the current account balance easing to -15.1 per cent of GDP in 2023 from -19.9 per cent in 2022.
Outlook
GDP growth is projected to increase substantially to 7.6 per cent in 2024, increasing further to 8.7 per cent in 2025, bolstered by increased activity in the petroleum sector, with the coming onstream of new producing wells, as well as new gold and phosphate production. Average inflation is projected to remain on a downward trajectory, declining to 3.6 per cent in 2024 and further to 2.1 per cent in 2025, as food prices continue to decline. Fiscal balance is projected to improve to -3.9 per cent of GDP in 2024, and further to -3.1 per cent in 2025 as the petroleum sector improves the fiscal space through the onboarding of new resource rents. Debt-to-GDP is projected to decline to 72.5 per cent in 2024 and further to 67.6 per cent in 2025. The current account balance is expected to continue to improve to -11.1 per cent of GDP in 2024 and further to -6.0 per cent in 2025 as new resource exports commence and ramp up.
Probable Headwinds
Risks to the projections include exports to the Sahelian region if Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger should action their intention to leave the Community. A further delay in petroleum production from the new fields will lead to a significant cut in growth prospects. A persistent increase in crude oil prices, though positive in revenue terms, will pose serious threats to the real sector of the economy.